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Calculated Risk | February 24 2011 10:00 EST
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 284 thousand. This is down from a revised 325 thousand in December.
Click on graph for larger image in new window.
The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.
Sales of new single-family houses in January 2011 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 284,000 ... This is 12 6 12.6 percent (±11.2%) below the revised December rate of 325,000 and is 18.6 percent (±15.4%) below the January 2010 estimate of 349,000.And a long term graph for New Home Months of Supply:
Months of supply increased to 7.9 in January from 7.0 months in December. The all time record was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009. This is still high (less than 6 months supply is normal).The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of January was 188,000. This represents a supply of 7.9 months at the current sales rate.On inventory, according to the Census Bureau:
"A house is considered for sale when a permit to build has been issued in permit-issuing places or work has begun on the footings or foundation in nonpermit areas and a sales contract has not been signed nor a deposit accepted."Starting in 1973 the Census Bureau broke this down into three categories: Not Started, Under Construction, and Completed.
This graph shows the three categories of inventory starting in 1973.
The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate).
Company : Calculated Risk
Website : http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/
About :
Bill McBride (author since Jan 2005), A full time blogger, Mr. McBride retired as a senior executive from a small public company in the '90s. Mr. McBride holds an MBA from the University of California, Irvine, and has a background in management, finance and economics.
