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Euro May Decline 4% If Support Broken, Citigroup Says: Technical Analysis



Bloomberg.com   |  September 8 2010 3:22 EDT

The euro may drop 4 percent to a level against the dollar last reached in July if a support level is breached, according to Citigroup Inc.

The 16-nation currency fell earlier today to the lowest level in September on concern some European governments are struggling to overcome the region’s sovereign-debt crisis. The euro appreciated after improved demand at auctions of Portuguese and Polish bonds.

“There is still another move down coming on the euro,” Tom Fitzpatrick, chief technical analyst at Citigroup in New York, said in a research note to clients. “The euro has come under renewed pressure in the short term as a result of focus again on European banks and sovereign spreads.”

If the euro falls below the support level of $1.2588, it could drop as low as $1.22, according to Fitzpatrick. That level was last touched on July 1. Resistance for the euro can be found at $1.2923, he wrote.

The euro climbed 0.5 percent today to $1.2745 at 10:32 a.m. in New York, from $1.2682 yesterday. It earlier fell to $1.2659, the lowest level since Aug. 31. The support level of $1.2588 cited by Fitzpatrick was last touched on Aug. 24.

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.

Resistance is an area on technical charts where orders to sell may be clustered, while support is where buy orders may be clustered. The stronger the support, the more selling is needed to drop below that level.



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