Dollar Takes Aim at 2012 High, S&P 500 Standstill Continues

DailyFX   |  February 8 2013 2:13 EST

The US Dollar has cleared yet another level of resistance and now takes aim at the 2012 yearly high. The S&P 500 continues to drift above the 1500 figure.

THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar has cleared yet another level of resistance and now takes aim at the 2012 yearly high. The S&P 500 continues to drift above the 1500 figure.

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS– Prices broke above resistance at 10273, the 100% Fibonacci expansion, exposing10323-30 area marked by the 2012 high and the 123.6% level. The 10273 mark has been recast as near-term support, with a turn back below that targeting the 76.4% Fib at 10216.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are hovering above support at 1495.90, the 100% Fibonacci expansion. Negative RSI divergence warns of ebbing bullish momentum, hinting a reversal lower may be ahead. A break downward initially exposes the 1470.30-74.90 area, marked by the September 14 high and the 76.4% Fib. Initial resistance is at 1513.70, the 14.6% expansion, with a push above that aiming for the 123.6% level 1521.30.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continue to hover above rising trend line support dating back to mid-May (1658.48), with a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern arguing for an upside bias. Near-term resistance is at 1690.39, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, followed by a falling channel top at 1693.43. A break above the latter level eyes the 50% level at 1710.74. Alternatively, a drop below support targets the January 4 low at 1625.69 and the 1600/oz figure.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS– Prices broke lower as expected, taking out the bottom of a Rising Wedge chart formation, after putting in a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern. Initial support remains at 95.14, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Interestingly, that level also looks to be lining up as the neckline to a would-be Head and Shoulders top. A break lower confirmed on a daily closing basis initially exposes the 38.2% level at 93.24 but the H&S setup implies a measured target at 92.07. Near-term resistance at 98.21, marked by the January 30 high.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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