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FXEmpire | February 16 2013 3:14 EST
By FXEmpire.com
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
Crude Oil is trading at 95.67 after dipping by 1.55 on Friday as seller booked profits on the higher US dollar. Oil prices lurched lower Friday in New York as traders took profits ahead of a holiday weekend in the US.A barrel of West Texas Intermediate settled at $95.67, down $1.55 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Friday’s move followed a rally earlier this week during which the WTI price hit $98.11 a barrel Wednesday. Friday’s economic data was neutral overall, as a weak number for US January industrial production was offset by strong results in a leading consumer confidence index and a better-than-expected Empire State Manufacturing report. Industrial production is something that oil traders watch pretty closely. As industrial production increases, so does demand for petroleum products.
Date | Last | Open | High | Low | Change % |
Feb 15, 2013 | 95.97 | 97.34 | 97.47 | 95.23 | -1.42% |
Feb 14, 2013 | 97.34 | 97.12 | 97.69 | 96.78 | 0.22% |
Feb 13, 2013 | 97.14 | 97.60 | 98.09 | 96.66 | -0.47% |
Feb 12, 2013 | 97.59 | 96.94 | 97.78 | 96.69 | 0.68% |
Feb 11, 2013 | 96.93 | 95.75 | 97.08 | 94.97 | 1.22% |
Oil prices were set to end the week on with weakness, shedding over $1 a barrel after a surprise drop in industrial activity in the United States. Output dropped slightly in January, which followed a 0.4% improvement in December.
This breaks the winning streak that has seen oil prices moving upwards in successive weeks since the turn of the year. Meanwhile the currency wars – the next economic buzz phrase, which follows the previously ubiquitous fiscal cliff – were also on the agenda as the G20 prepare to meet at a summit in Moscow. It is the latest issue to introduce uncertainty to international markets. It is feared that global economies will suffer as rival countries compete in a race to de-value their respective currencies.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of February 11 15 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD
Date | Currency | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
Feb. 12 | GBP | RICS House Price Balance | -4% | -2% | -1% |
CHF | CPI (MoM) | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.2% | |
GBP | Core CPI (YoY) | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.4% | |
GBP | CPI (YoY) | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.7% | |
GBP | PPI Input (MoM) | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.0% | |
GBP | CPI (MoM) | -0.5% | -0.4% | 0.5% | |
GBP | PPI Input (YoY) | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | |
USD | Federal Budget Balance | 3.0B | -2.0B | -0.3B | |
Feb. 13 | CHF | PPI (MoM) | -0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
EUR | Industrial Production (MoM) | 0.7% | 0.2% | -0.7% | |
USD | Core Retail Sales (MoM) | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
USD | Import Price Index (MoM) | 0.6% | 0.7% | -0.5% | |
USD | Retail Sales (MoM) | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
USD | 10-Year Note Auction | 2.046% | 1.863% | ||
Feb. 14 | EUR | French GDP (QoQ) | -0.3% | -0.2% | 0.1% |
EUR | German GDP (QoQ) | -0.6% | -0.5% | 0.2% | |
EUR | German GDP (YoY) | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
EUR | French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.3% | |
EUR | GDP (QoQ) | -0.6% | -0.4% | -0.1% | |
USD | Initial Jobless Claims | 341K | 360K | 368K | |
USD | Continuing Jobless Claims | 3114K | 3200K | 3244K | |
Feb. 15 | GBP | Retail Sales (MoM) | -0.6% | 0.4% | -0.3% |
GBP | Retail Sales (YoY) | -0.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% | |
USD | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 10.0 | -2.0 | -7.8 | |
USD | TIC Net Long-Term Transactions | 64.2B | 34.3B | 52.4B | |
USD | Industrial Production (MoM) | -0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
USD | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 76.3 | 74.8 | 73.8 |
Historical: From 2010 to Present
Highest: 114.81 on May 02, 2011
Average: 89.58 over this period
Lowest: 67.17 on May 25, 2010
WEEKLY
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD
Date | Time | Currency | Event | Forecast | Previous |
Feb. 19 | 10:00 | EUR | 35.0 | 31.5 | |
Feb. 20 | 07:00 | EUR | -0.5% | -0.5% | |
07:00 | EUR | 1.7% | 1.7% | ||
07:45 | EUR | 0.3% | |||
09:30 | GBP | 1.4% | 1.5% | ||
09:30 | GBP | -5.0K | -12.1K | ||
13:30 | USD | 0.918M | 0.909M | ||
13:30 | USD | 0.2% | 0.1% | ||
13:30 | USD | 0.925M | 0.954M | ||
13:30 | USD | 0.3% | -0.3% | ||
13:30 | USD | 1.4% | 1.3% | ||
13:30 | USD | 1.7% | 2.0% | ||
Feb. 21 | 07:58 | EUR | 43.8 | 42.9 | |
08:28 | EUR | 50.5 | 49.8 | ||
11:00 | GBP | -15 | -20 | ||
13:30 | USD | 0.2% | 0.1% | ||
13:30 | USD | 0.1% | |||
13:30 | USD | 1.7% | 1.7% | ||
13:30 | USD | 1.8% | 1.9% | ||
15:00 | USD | 4.90M | 4.94M | ||
15:00 | USD | 1.0 | -5.8 | ||
Feb. 22 | 07:00 | EUR | -0.6% | ||
07:00 | EUR | 0.1% | |||
09:00 | EUR | 105.0 | 104.2 | ||
09:00 | EUR | 108.5 | 108.0 | ||
09:00 | EUR | 101.3 | 100.5 |
Upcoming Government Bond
Date Time Country
Feb 19 01:30 Japan
Feb 19 09:30 Spain
Feb 20 10:10 Sweden
Feb 20 10:30 Germany
Feb 20 10:30 Portugal
Feb 21 01:30 Japan
Feb 21 09:30 Spain
Feb 21 09:50 France
Feb 21 10:30 UK
Feb 21 10:50 France
Feb 21 16:30 Italy
Feb 21 16:00 US
Feb 21 18:00 US
Feb 22 16:30 Italy
Click here to read Crude Oil Technical Analysis.
Originally posted here
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