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FXEmpire | December 1 2012 4:03 EST
By FXEmpire.com
Introduction: Crude Oil is considered the king of the commodities markets.
TheStrategic Petroleum Reserveis the United States emergency oil stockpile, and it is the largest emergency petroleum supply in the world. The reserve stores about 570 million barrels of crude oil in underground salt caverns at four sites along the Gulf of Mexico. Any dipping into this reserve is going to be big news.
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
Crude Oil traded in a very tight range opening on Monday at 88.13 and closing on Friday at 88.95. With traders seeing increased demand due to positive eco data in the US and China prices remained strong. Although geopolitical turmoil in the mid east subsided there remains tensions shifting between Israel and Palestine, to unrest in Egypt to the ongoing civil war in Syria, which keeps markets stressed.
Date | Last | Open | High | Low | Change % |
Nov 30, 2012 | 88.95 | 87.66 | 88.99 | 87.58 | 1.47% |
Nov 29, 2012 | 87.66 | 86.63 | 88.68 | 86.59 | 1.20% |
Nov 28, 2012 | 86.62 | 87.02 | 87.25 | 85.38 | -0.47% |
Nov 27, 2012 | 87.03 | 87.88 | 88.25 | 86.84 | -0.92% |
Nov 26, 2012 | 87.83 | 88.13 | 88.28 | 87.29 | -0.35% |
EIA reports this week showed a decline in inventory which also supported prices. The completion of a Greek funding agreement helped strengthen the euro and also oil.
U.S. light sweet crude oil production continues to rise strongly as Gulf Coast refiners may be able to satisfy all of their current demand for light sweet crude oil with domestic production. Gulf Coast refiners could probably absorb additional volumes of light sweet crude oil to replace some imports of heavier crude oil streams that many of the refineries in the region are designed to use, but this could reduce the production of some high-value products and also reduce operating rates of some sophisticated refinery units used to convert low-quality, lower-priced heavy crudes into high-value products. Traditional price premiums for light crude would probably have to fall to incentivize such behavior. For this reason, increased exports may be a more attractive option for producers if an excess of light sweet crude oil in the Gulf Coast market actually develops. In the November Short-Term Energy Outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected that U.S. crude oil production will reach 6.85 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2013, a 0.52-million-bbl/d increase from the 2012 level that is itself projected to be 0.78 million bbl/d above the 2011 level.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of November 26 – 30 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD
Date | Currency | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
Nov. 26 | CHF | Employment Level | 4.12M | 4.09M | 4.07M |
EUR | GfK German Consumer Climate | 5.9 | 6.2 | 6.1 | |
Nov. 27 | GBP | Business Investment (QoQ) | 3.7% | 1.3% | 0.9% |
GBP | GDP (QoQ) | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
GBP | GDP (YoY) | -0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
USD | Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) | 1.5% | -0.5% | 1.7% | |
USD | Durable Goods Orders (MoM) | 0.0% | -0.6% | 9.2% | |
USD | CB Consumer Confidence | 73.7 | 73.0 | 73.1 | |
Nov. 28 | EUR | German CPI (MoM) | -0.1% | -0.1% | 0.0% |
EUR | German CPI (YoY) | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.0% | |
USD | New Home Sales | 368K | 390K | 369K | |
Nov. 29 | CHF | GDP (QoQ) | 0.6% | 0.2% | -0.1% |
GBP | Nationwide HPI (MoM) | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
EUR | German Unemployment Change | 5K | 15K | 19K | |
EUR | Italian 10-Year BTP Auction | 4.45% | 4.92% | ||
GBP | CBI Distributive Trades Survey | 33 | 18 | 30 | |
USD | Initial Jobless Claims | 393K | 390K | 416K | |
USD | GDP (QoQ) | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.0% | |
USD | Continuing Jobless Claims | 3287K | 3323K | 3357K | |
USD | Pending Home Sales (MoM) | 5.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | |
Nov. 30 | EUR | French Consumer Spending (MoM) | -0.2% | -0.1% | 0.1% |
CHF | KOF Leading Indicators | 1.50 | 1.60 | 1.64 | |
EUR | CPI (YoY) | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.5% | |
USD | Core PCE Price Index (MoM) | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
USD | Personal Spending (MoM) | -0.2% | 0.2% | 0.8% |
Historical: From 2010 to Present
Highest: 114.81 on May 02, 2011
Average: 89.58 over this period
Lowest: 67.17 on May 25, 2010
WEEKLY
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD
Date | Time | Currency | Event | Forecast | Previous |
Dec. 03 | 08:15 | CHF | 4.1% | 5.4% | |
08:30 | CHF | 47.0 | 46.1 | ||
15:00 | USD | 51.3 | 51.7 | ||
Dec. 05 | 10:00 | EUR | -0.1% | -0.2% | |
13:15 | USD | 125K | 158K | ||
13:30 | USD | 2.7% | 1.9% | ||
13:30 | USD | -0.9% | -0.1% | ||
15:00 | USD | 53.5 | 54.2 | ||
Dec. 06 | 08:15 | CHF | 0.1% | ||
09:30 | GBP | -8.8B | -8.4B | ||
10:00 | EUR | -0.1% | -0.1% | ||
11:00 | EUR | 0.9% | -3.3% | ||
12:00 | GBP | 0.50% | 0.50% | ||
12:00 | GBP | 375B | 375B | ||
12:45 | EUR | 0.75% | 0.75% | ||
Dec. 07 | 09:30 | GBP | 0.7% | -1.7% | |
09:30 | GBP | -0.2% | 0.1% | ||
09:30 | GBP | -0.6% | -2.6% | ||
11:00 | EUR | -0.5% | -1.8% |
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Dec 03 10:30 Germany
Dec 04 01:30 Japan
Dec 04 10:30 Belgium
Dec 04 15:30 UK
Dec 05 09:30 Spain
Dec 05 10:30 Germany
Dec 05 11:00 Norway
Dec 05 15:30 Sweden
Dec 06 01:30 Japan
Dec 06 09:50 France
Dec 06 16:00 US
Dec 07 16:30 Italy
Click here a current Crude Oil Chart.
Originally posted here
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