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: Japan's Exports Likely To Remain Strong Helped By Recovery In Asia's Domestic Demand: BNP Paribas
11/25/09 03:51 am (EST)

(RTTNews) - Japan's exports should continue to remain firm in the foreseeable future, thanks to a robust recovery of domestic demand in Asia, especially in China, BNP Paribas said in research note Wednesday.

The stronger than expected recovery in the Asian economies, particularly China, was helped by extremely stimulative policies adopted by the nations involved, coupled with additional monetary accommodation coming from the influx of foreign capital, the firm noted.

Therefore, the firm believes that despite exports to the US and Europe continuing to recover only weakly, with the level remaining around 60% of former peak, the strong tone of Asia-bound shipments should take up the slack, keeping Japan's exports humming.

In October, Japan's exports to the US rose just 0.8% month-on-month compared to the 0.6% rise in September. Trend-wise, exports to the US rose 10.8% sequentially in the third quarter, after the 12.2% growth in the second quarter and the 36.1% plunge in the first quarter. Shipments were 4.2% higher in October than in the third quarter, but the level remained very low at 61.6% of its former peak in August 2007, the firm noted.

At the same time, exports to the EU rose 6.7% in October, faster than the 5.2% gain in September, marking the third consecutive month of increase. Trend-wise the recovery was slow, with the shipments growing a modest 1% sequentially in the third quarter, after the 5.5% growth in the second quarter and a 28.7% drop in the first quarter.

"While the solid growth posted in October puts EU-bound exports up 10.6% compared to the third quarter, the overall level remains low like that of America, at only 61.6% of its former peak (March 2008)", the firm noted.

Exports to Asia rose 2.5% in October after the 4.9% growth in September. Trend-wise, exports grew 10.4% in the third quarter, following the 16.5% growth in the second quarter and a 22.1% fall in the first quarter. Shipments to Asia rebounded to 85% of former peak, the best performance among the major destinations.

Overall, nominal exports rose 2.5% month-on-month in October, faster than the 0.6% rise in September, marking the third consecutive month of increase. In real terms, the recovery came in for the seventh consecutive month, growing 2% in October compared to the 4.6% rise in the previous month. The export level stands at 74.9% of its former peak seen in December 2007, it said.

On a trend-basis, real exports grew 7.6% sequentially in the third quarter, slower than the 10.7% growth in the second quarter, and comes after a steep 28.1% fall in the first quarter.

"That real export growth in Q3 has somewhat slowed from Q2 seems to reflect the waning impact of the overseas inventory cycle, which drove the rebound by exports since April, alongside such other temporary factors as the stimulative policies embraced by many nations and the materializing of pent-up demand following the end of excessive pessimism", BNP Paribas added.