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USD FLAT AHEAD OF NFP; STOPS BUILDING ON BOTH SIDES Nov 06 2009 07:49 am (EST) Story By: Core Financial Group, INC The USD is mostly flat after hovering around unchanged overnight with tighter ranges and super-light volume. Most action was very subdued as traders settled into pre-NFP vigil with most trade technical in nature into early New York. UK Producer Prices are higher than expected adding a bit of lift to Cable but the rate is encountering headwinds above the 1.6620 area. Canadian unemployment numbers were a bit higher than expected driving USD/CAD higher through stops this morning but the rate is stalling at previous resistance in the 1.0740/50 area. Aside from those reports overnight news was thin and action was very quiet. GBP had solid two-way action with low prints at 1.6557 before slowly recovering ahead of UK data; high prints at 1.6638 were offered by semi-official names some desks report. Traders note stops likely on both sides with a likely test of support around 1.6500 before attempting the 1.6700 handle. EURO remained range bound in quiet trade; high prints at 1.4907 with lows at 1.4854 making for an inside range day so far. Traders note that offers were from large names and some are concerned that G-20 over the weekend might address EURO strength is putting a lid on near-term strength; some desks report sovereign interest to buy dips. USD/JPY also in a tight range with tech levels holding into early New York; high prints at 90.86 and lows at 90.39 before holding mid-range. Yen crosses were offered by Japanese names in Asian trade suggesting more downside coming. USD/CAD lifted to make a new high in early New York as data was seen as bearish for the loonie; high prints at 1.0743 with overnight lows in Asia at 1.0607 once again holding support. Traders note large stops at the 1.0680 and 1.0700 areas with more above 1.0750 which might trigger around the NFP data this morning. Technically a close over the 1.0720/30 would be seen as bullish near-term. In my view, overnight action being subdued is to be expected and today’s data will create some whipsaw as usual. Once that is out of the way I would be looking for a case of “buy the rumor/sell the fact” to be in play. NFP has been highly anticipated and in expectation of a positive number markets are priced a bit high. The failure of the USD to sell off after yesterday’s big rally in equities suggested that the bears are in and unwilling to press their positions; a break lower on whipsaw is likely to result in a solid rally into the day as equities correct lower. Look for today’s news to whipsaw the markets and the real order flow to start around 45 minutes after the news. Be ready for the USD to rally and hold gains by the end of the day; equities to give back some of this week’s gains. |
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